For those seeking more great news about gold investment, metals consultancy Thomas Reuters affirms that the precious yellow metal is getting closer to the end of a 10-year streak that has seen prices swell more than 600 percent, but it anticipates the metal to reach a climax of $2,000 an ounce between October 2012 and March 2013. Since 2001, spot gold has been an excellent asset as portfolio diversification, uncertainty over sovereign risk, and extremely low interest rates have aided in the rising of prices from a low near $250 an ounce to a peak above $1,920 in September 2011. Gold is expected to exceed that level in the closing quarter of 2012 or the first three months of next year, GFMS said, conceivably springing through the $2,000 an ounce point.
In the second update to its Gold Survey, the company said, “A combination of factors will ensure that sufficient demand from investors and to a lesser extent official sector institutions comes into the market for it to clear at higher levels. Concerns over nearly all currencies’ long-term value remain acute, and this includes the U.S. dollar, which to a large extent has found favor simply as the ‘least bad’ option, especially in light of growing fears over the break-up of the eurozone.”
Despite this, things should stabilize which will affect gold negatively. GFMS confirmed, “The report does acknowledge that the gold market is nearing the closing stages of its decade-long bull run and that, once the macroeconomic backdrop changes and investment in gold fades- probably some time next year – a secular retreat in the price will unfurl.”
According to the company, in the first half, the price of gold will have a medium of $1,640 an ounce, somewhat similar to what we are seeing now. A growing dollar and aggravating risk aversion, which in past months has constrained gold and could deter short-term price increases.
In the first half of the New Year, GFMS understands that jewelry demand will lessen by 3.1 percent to 1,027 tonnes, in line with a 2.2 percent abatement in overall claim to 2,199 tonnes. China and Turkey will most likely be the main propellers of jewelry demand, and China may pass India as the world’s major gold buyer from January to July 2012. Philip Newman, GFMS’ precious metal’s director said, “In terms of calendar year 2011, India was ahead, but…it does seem as though China, in terms of our data for the first half of the year, may just tip ahead.”
Apparently, central banks are purchasing less, though, with official sector acquisitions believed to have ascended to their peak levels since 1964 last year are now beheld as falling some 7 percent to 190 tonnes in the first half, still an historically superior point.
Following a surge by more than a third last year to 1,194 tonnes, physical bar sales are anticipated to go higher another 1.4 percent in the first half. As the debt crisis emerged, demand for gold bars was predominantly powerful in German-speaking Europe in 2011.
A warning from GFMS:
Not all areas of investment are expected to be buoyant. Official coin and bar investment might continue to grow a fraction, but the implied (investment) figure should swing to net disinvestment…as a result of eurozone travails, dollar strength, and constrained liquidity.
According to GFMS, it will be the rising dollar that will be gold’s biggest hindrance. Global investment is anticipated to reduce by some 250 tonnes in the first half of 2012 from the first six months of last year, to 680 tonnes.
From the point of view of the supply side, mine production is presumed to increase 3.2 percent in the first half of the year, despite the fact that most new supply will emerge from prevailing, instead of recent, undertakings. Gold scrap supply is perceived to be falling 3.1 percent, in spite of most available material hitting the market after a prolonged period of gold price strength. New sellers may also be put off by expectations of higher prices, it supplemented. The shorter term foundations are not as unstable as might be thought for gold investment. It’s still one of the best places to park your money.